Mavericks still massive NBA Finals long shots despite Porzingis injury

The Mavericks trail 2-0 in the NBA Finals to the Boston Celtics and their prospects for a comeback seem bleak given historical precedents.

While having a 2-0 lead in the NBA Playoffs, teams are 424-34 to win the series (92.6 percent).

In the NBA Finals specifically, teams are 31-5 when having a 2-0 lead (86.1 percent).

DraftKings has the Celtics at -800 to win the NBA Finals, equating to an 88.89 implied percent chance that they go on to win the NBA Finals.

The Mavericks come in at +550, or a 15.38 implied percent chance to win the NBA Finals as they return home to Dallas.

The odds could be changing slightly, though, as BetMGM initially had the Celtics at -1000 to win the championship before dropping down to -800 after the Kristaps Porzingis injury uncertainty began to trickle out of media day on Tuesday.

Porzingis had said he would play, but the use of the words “major injury” is certainly concerning.

In theory, the Mavericks returning home would be a welcomed sight, but the Celtics are impressively 6-0 on the road during these playoffs, with their only two playoff losses coming at home.

Boston is 78-20 combined this season including the playoffs, with a 45-6 record at home and a 33-14 record on the road.

The Mavericks have struggled to get off the ground in the first two games, with guard Kyrie Irving playing far below his previous series playoff standards.

Irving is a combined 13 of 37 from the field and just 28 points through two games.

Jaylen Brown has been playing impressive defense.
Jaylen Brown has been playing impressive defense. Getty Images

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The Mavericks guard has comeback down 0-2 in the NBA Finals once before, as a member of the 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers — the only team to ever comeback from a 3-1 deficit.

In 2021 the Milwaukee Bucks came back from 0-2, preceded only by the 2006 Heat, 1977 Trail Blazers, and 1969 Boston Celtics.

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