The Yankees find themselves in pole position right now, and that’s not just based on what everyone has seen these first two games of the American League Championship Series. Strictly going by the eye test, this has been a mismatch and promises to be one, even if the Guardians can scratch out a win or two on home grounds.
We won’t go so far as to say this has the feel of a No. 16 seed playing a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but it does feel something like a 3 playing a 14. In that scenario, the underdog team has won 17.2 percent of the time — 23 out of 133. So not impossible. But not something you’d be eager to bet your mortgage on.
And that tracks. Because in the long history of best-of-seven series in MLB’s postseason — which goes back as far as 1905 and has been the standard for the World Series since 1922 and for the league championship series since 1985 — teams that have fallen into a 2-0 hole have gone on to win just 16 percent of the time.
Not impossible.
But again: Don’t bet your car.
So we don’t only have our eyes to tell us the Guardians have their work cut out to beat the Yankees four out of five times, we also have history books. Fifteen teams have accomplished that improbable task in the 91 times it’s happened since the Cubs jumped out 2-0 on the Tigers in the 1907 World Series (the Tigers managed a tie but lost the series 4-0-1.)
The Yankees have been involved in seven of them — four times when they were the ones to spin 0-2 down into a series win, three times when they were the team to squander pole position and watch 2-0 to the good dissolve into dust.
In all seven of those cases, there’s at least one lesson to be gleaned to keep the Yankees on the proper path, and to make sure the Guardians don’t replicate Oakland, which last March knocked off No. 3 seed Kentucky as a 14 and kicked John Calipari all the way to the Arkansas border. Herewith, seven lessons for the 2024 Yankees.
1. Assume nothing, especially on the road.
By 1955, the Yankees had faced the Dodgers five times in the World Series since 1941 and gone 5-for-5, so it was easy for them to fall into complacency when they jumped to a 2-0 lead after two games at Yankee Stadium.
But the Dodgers — like the Guardians hope to now — took full advantage of the cozier confines and friendlier vibes of home. They beat the Yankees easily three straight at Ebbets Field, and after the Yankees squared things in Game 6 back in The Bronx, they rode Johnny Podres and Sandy Amoros in anything-can-happen Game 7, and Next Year had finally arrived in Flatbush.
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2. When in doubt, good pitching always kills
A year later, the Dodgers hammered the Yankees in Games 1 and 2 and, having already conquered the Yankees jinx, seemed ready to roll again. But starting with a 2-0 win in Game 5 — you may have heard, Don Larsen pitched a perfect game that day — Yankee pitching allowed the Dodgers just one run in the final three games. And so the final World Series tally would stretch into eternity: Bronx Bombers 6, Brooklyn Bums 1.
3. A(lways), B(e), C(losing). ALWAYS be closing.
The Yankees added an extra degree of difficulty in the 1958 World Series, losing the first two to the Milwaukee Braves and then dropping Game 4, too, falling into a 3-1 hole. Only one team to that point — the 1925 Pirates — had ever recovered from down 3-1. Even crazier: The Braves threw Lew Burdette (who’d beaten the Yankees three times in ’57) and Warren Spahn in the final three games — and Games 6 and 7 were in Milwaukee. But Bob Turley twice out-pitched Burdette and the Yankees survived a 4-3, 10-inning gut-cruncher in Game 6, and the Braves never could seal the deal despite having every advantage in their favor.
4. Beware the team that’s used to must-win games.
The 1978 Yankees had essentially played 2 ½ months of elimination games just to erase a 14-game deficit to the Red Sox, then overcame a 2-0 hole against them in the one-game playoff — played inside rabid Fenway Park. Cleveland had to endure two elimination games against Detroit, one on the road, one against the presumptive Cy Young winner. Falling behind 2-0 to the Dodgers in the ’78 Series barely registered for the Yankees, who became the first team trailing 0-2 to win four straight. Are the Guardians similarly stout?
5. Don’t fall into the trap of saying, ‘We can always win back at home.’
Because sometimes, momentum shifts so quickly and so completely even home field can’t rescue you. In 1981, the Yankees dominated the Dodgers at Yankee Stadium, then led in all three games at Dodger Stadium before the Dodgers gathered steam by winning three straight one-run games. By the time the Series returned to New York for Game 6, the Dodgers were a steamroller, and won 9-2.
6. Just because you’re clearly the better team …
The Braves were the defending champs in 1996. They’d come roaring back in the NLCS by outscoring the Cardinals 32-1 in the final three games, then kept it going, beating the Yankees in Game 1 and 2 by a combined 16-1. They had Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz. And they jumped to a 6-0 lead in Game 4. And none of that meant a thing when Charlie Hayes squeezed Mark Lemke’s pop-up to end Game 6.
7. Add 1+2+3+4+5+6 …
And you get what happened in 2004. The Yankees have let the 20th anniversary of the Red Sox’ epic comeback from love-3 down pass as quietly as possible. Best to keep that one in the closet forever, if possible.